Islamabad: Pakistan's international aviation activity has experienced a sharp and unusual contraction in early March, coinciding with escalating geopolitical tensions in the region.

Analysis of data from the Gallup Pakistan Digital Analytics Aviation Dashboard shows that international departures declined from 1,127 flights (1-10 February) to 572 flights (1-10 March), representing a drop of nearly 50% within just a few weeks.

In practical terms, this means that almost half of Pakistan's outbound international flights disappeared in a short span of time, indicating a disruption well beyond normal seasonal or operational fluctuations.

The analysis shows a sudden contraction in outbound aviation activity: As per details; 1-10 February 2026: 1,127 departures and; 1-10 March 2026: 572 departures.

This represents a 49-50% decline in total international flights, a magnitude of change rarely observed under normal aviation conditions. The timing of this decline aligns closely with the escalation of conflict involving Iran in late February 2026, which led to widespread airspace restrictions across key transit regions.

Airspace closures and security concerns across Iran and parts of the Gulf resulted in: Flight cancellation; rerouting of international carriers; and reduced flight frequency.

Given Pakistan's heavy reliance on Middle Eastern aviation corridors, these disruptions quickly translated into reduced international departures.

Beyond the overall decline in volume, the structure of international travel also shifted. In early February, outbound traffic was more diversified across Gulf destinations, including Dubai and Jeddah. However, by early March, departures became more concentrated toward Saudi Arabia (Jeddah and Riyadh).

This suggests that essential and religious travel continued; and non-essential travel to Gulf hubs declined significantly

The change reflects not just a reduction in flights, but a shift in the composition of travel demand. The findings highlight how external geopolitical shocks can rapidly affect Pakistan's aviation sector, particularly due to its integration with Middle Eastern transit networks.

The sharp contraction in flights within a short period underscores the sensitivity of international aviation flows to regional instability and airspace disruptions.