Islamabad: Pakistan's family-size pattern is changing, but the transition remains much slower than India's. Gallup Pakistan Digital Analytics analysed Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey microdata from 1990-91 and 2017-18 and compared it with India's National Family Health Survey series from 1993 to 2021.

In Pakistan, the share of mothers with five or more children declined from 47% in 1990-91 to 33% in 2017-18. Over the same period, smaller families became more common: the combined share of mothers with only one or two children increased from 26% to 33%.

The direction is positive, but Pakistan remains substantially behind India's transition. By 2021, 60% of Indian mothers had only one or two children, compared with 33% in Pakistan's latest survey. Meanwhile, only 8% of Indian mothers had five or more children, against 33% in Pakistan.

One important correction: the chart does not show Pakistan's 2017-18 level matching India in 2006. India's share of mothers with five or more children was already 20% in 2006, considerably below Pakistan's 33% in 2017-18. In fact, Pakistan's latest figure remained higher than India's earliest figure shown for 1993, when the Indian rate was 27%.

The broader conclusion still holds: both countries are moving toward smaller families, but India's transition has been much faster. Pakistan has made measurable progress, yet mothers with three or more children remain the majority.

Pakistan's limited number of DHS rounds also makes it harder to trace how quickly change occurred between 1990-91 and 2017-18. India's more frequent NFHS surveys provide a much clearer picture of the pace of demographic change.

This analysis was conducted by Gallup Pakistan using Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey data for 1990-91 and 2017-18 and India's National Family Health Survey data for 1993-2021. Figures represent the distribution of ever-married mothers by total number of children ever born.