Washington: India has been ranked fourth out of 168 countries for the likelihood of intrastate mass killings over the next two years, according to an annual global assessment by the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum. The report highlights India as the highest-ranked country at serious risk that is not already experiencing large-scale violence.

The December 2025 report from the museum's Early Warning Project estimates that India has a 7.5% chance of deliberate mass violence against civilians before the end of 2026. Such violence is defined as armed groups killing at least 1,000 non-combatants within a year based on group identity, including ethnicity, religion, politics, or geography.

Three countries scored higher than India: Myanmar, Chad, and Sudan, although these nations are already facing ongoing mass killings, making India a potential new flashpoint. Researchers at the museum and Dartmouth College analysed decades of historical data to identify patterns and early warning signs of mass violence.

Lawrence Woocher, Research Director at the museum's Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, emphasized that the project aims to help officials and organisations focus resources on prevention. He noted, 'By heeding warning signs and taking early action, individuals and governments can save lives.'

The report cautions that its findings are not predictive or causal. While factors like large population size historically correlate with mass killings, they do not directly trigger violence. The model relies on publicly available data from 2024, and conditions from 2025 are not reflected. Researchers underline that the assessment is a tool for discussion and further research rather than a definitive conclusion.

For countries in the top tier, the report recommends that policymakers evaluate whether sufficient attention is being given to risks of systematic attacks on civilians, potential triggers such as political upheavals or protests, and societal strengths that can be reinforced to prevent violence.

Since 2014, the Early Warning Project has issued annual assessments, and past warnings have included situations like the Rohingya genocide in Myanmar and mass civilian deaths in South Sudan and Ethiopia. The report underscores that timely preventative action is critical to avert future atrocities.