Islamabad: Pakistan's demographic transition is underway, but progress remains gradual and uneven across regions and population groups.
Analysis of the Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement Survey (PSLM) / Household Integrated Economic Survey (HIES) 2024-25, compiled through the Gallup Pakistan Digital Analytics Dashboard, shows that the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has declined from 4.0 in 2018-19 to 3.6 in 2024-25, while contraceptive use has increased to 38% nationally.
In practical terms, this means that Pakistan is experiencing a slow but steady decline in fertility, but the pace remains insufficient to rapidly shift population growth dynamics, particularly in rural areas. Fertility decline remains gradual with strong rural-urban divide. The analysis shows that fertility is declining but remains significantly higher in rural areas.
According to the data: National TFR: 4.0 ? 3.6; Urban areas: 3.0; and Rural areas: 4.1. This indicates that urban areas are transitioning faster, while rural regions continue to exhibit higher fertility due to differences in access, education, and cultural norms.
Contraceptive use improves but gaps persist. There has been a noticeable increase in contraceptive use across the country.
According to the data:- National CPR: 34% ? 38%; Urban areas: 44% and Rural areas: 34%. While progress is evident, the gap between urban and rural areas suggests that access to and adoption of family planning remains uneven.
Education plays a critical role in family planning. The analysis highlights a strong relationship between women's education and contraceptive use. Women with higher levels of education are significantly more likely to use family planning methods, have smaller family sizes, and demonstrate greater autonomy in reproductive decisions.
This underscores that education is one of the most powerful drivers of demographic transition in Pakistan. Cultural and social barriers continue to limit adoption. Despite improvements, several barriers continue to restrict family planning use.
According to the findings: Desire for more children: 36%; Spousal opposition: 8% and Religious beliefs: 6%. These factors are more pronounced in rural areas, indicating that demand-side barriers and social norms remain key constraints alongside access issues.
Women's decision-making power remains limited. The findings also highlight persistent gender inequality in household decision-making.
In many cases, decisions related to family planning, healthcare, education, and marriage are made jointly or by male household heads, with women having limited independent decision-making authority.
This suggests that women's empowerment remains central to improving reproductive health outcomes and accelerating fertility decline.
There is a slow but uneven demographic transition. Taken together, the findings suggest that Pakistan is moving toward lower fertility, but the transition remains slow, unequal, and shaped by deep structural factors.
Progress in contraceptive use and declining fertility coexists with persistent rural-urban divides, educational gaps, and cultural barriers, indicating that accelerating demographic transition will require integrated efforts across health, education, and social policy.